Another day another Cambridge report and November it is the turn of The Greater Cambridge Growth Scenarios report, commissioned by the UK Government and developed by Oxford Economics which outlines three potential growth trajectories for the region to the period 2050.

Key planning findings

Let’s start with surprises, and sorry, it is not quite time for the Christmas gifts:

1. The report estimates that even under a high growth scenario of 150,000 homes, commercial floor space of 33m sq ft may fail to meet demand, especially in life sciences and tech.
2. Productivity in Cambridge is only slightly above the UK average, with growth driven more by sectoral concentration rather than any regional advantage.
3. Life sciences output actually fell between 2009-2018 and has only recovered post-pandemic with expected continued growth.

The report offers data to confirm many industry and government insights from previous reports and data, suggesting three models of growth based on housing and commercial needs and outputs. Low growth represents a model of 100,000 new homes and 22 million sq ft of commercial space.

It also confirms many of the local barriers to investment and growth which include acute transport, water and energy strains but also delays to planning. Cambridge has been described as the most ‘unequal city in the UK’, with stark disparities in access to housing, education, and opportunity which many local policy makers are keen to address in any future growth as a priority. There is significant local emphasis on the importance of growth combined with environmental stewardship and green space preservation.

Who is going to drive growth?

For anyone who lives or works in Greater Cambridge will already know that there are various answers to this and sometimes a lot of confusion. As local policy makers grapple with devolution, which is taking up a lot of airtime, it is clear central government is not going to leave the growth to the locals.

Why is this you may ask? This report confirms that the Government see Greater Cambridge as a national economic priority as well as a scientific and economic supercluster, critical to global competitiveness. They also believe that political decisions at the local level are directly influencing the pace and direction of development, and not in the direction they want to see.

The lack of housing and research space is framed as a barrier to national innovation which is presenting as tension between growth priorities and local equity challenges.

What does this mean for the sector?

Six figure housing growth is still on the table in this report, proving former Secretary of State for Levelling up, Housing and Communities Michael Gove may have been right all along (first time I may have said that). The report models housing growth of between 100,000 and 150,000 meaning large-scale growth is very much still on the table and the Government is building the proof to support it.

Commercial growth, particularly in the life sciences or tech sectors, are going to be supported with targeted policy likely both at national and local levels.

Developers, expect to present far more robust and innovative solutions to tackling inequality locally, especially to garner council support as social impact becomes central to inclusive growth.

The Local Plan is still delayed and there is still considerable local uncertainty regarding future local government structures and organisational driven growth. Navigating change will be important as the Government start to actually realise plans but also just to keep ahead of the next local report focus.